Here is a piece:
http://www.iranian.com/SiamackBaniameri/2006/May/NSA/index.html
I like Siamak's writings.
Monday, May 15, 2006
Sunday, May 14, 2006
First Line of Defense, Last Line of Defense
Funny thing, I am thinking about this phrase: Last line of defense, first line of defense. How many military commanders have used it? How many times I have heard it in movies?
Several I guess. Now here I am sitting behind this laptop. The truth is the first line of defense is not military. It is not nuclear weaponry, It is not navy nor air force.
This is the first line of defense: ideas & words, the only weaponry it needs is the classical pen or the modern computer with a word processing system. If one fails here, his lost is imminent, if one prevails, his victory is certain.
For many of us the realm of words is the only battlefield left for us. As Gandhi said it so brilliantly: It is a place where we have the strong hand, and they don't.
This is the true first line and the real last line of defense.
Several I guess. Now here I am sitting behind this laptop. The truth is the first line of defense is not military. It is not nuclear weaponry, It is not navy nor air force.
This is the first line of defense: ideas & words, the only weaponry it needs is the classical pen or the modern computer with a word processing system. If one fails here, his lost is imminent, if one prevails, his victory is certain.
For many of us the realm of words is the only battlefield left for us. As Gandhi said it so brilliantly: It is a place where we have the strong hand, and they don't.
This is the true first line and the real last line of defense.
The Realty Diplomacy
When last week the text of President Ahmadineghad’s letter was published, it did not surprise those who know a thing or two about Iran’s domestic politics. Many compared the letter with a similar letter written by Imam Khomeini in 1988 when USSR was approaching its downfall, offering another ideology based regime a solution by returning to faith. But White House of 2006 proved to be different than Kremlin of 1988. Imam Khomeini’s letter was used by all levels of government in Tehran as an excuse to approach Moscow, an act equal to blasphemy prior to that, and Moscow welcomed this opportunity to start a new era in Russia-Iran relations[1]. Ahmadineghad’s attempt has been rejected coldly so far, denying Iran’s diplomatic efforts a similar opportunity to that of 1988.
It is obvious that this letter neither in content nor in style has been appealing to the most of Iran’s intellectual society and international community. Some felt embarrassment, some laughed at it and some took advantage of it to attack fundamentalist basis of Islamic Republic. Not many voices have joined those of characters such as Madeline Albright to ask White House to use this opportunity to start a new dialogue with Iran. It also is true that many in Islamic world consider his letter a triumph. Many of its points, although not shared by majority of Iranian population, are common thoughts in the Middle East. The average people on streets and in bazaars would repeat the same points to each other. Thus it is simplistic to consider this letter as the work of a simpleton. If one believes in incentive, purpose and proper tactics in diplomacy, then one ought to analyze Mr. Ahmadineghad’s incentive, purpose and tactical advantage in doing so.
Incentive: Do President Ahamdineghad and Iranian government have any incentive to seek negotiations with USA? The answer is “yes they do”. If security is the first concern of any national government, then Iranian government has to seek guarantees from USA not EU nor Russia nor China. USA has forces on both eastern and western fronts of Iran. Its naval presence in Persian Gulf and Sea of Amman is strong. There also are plans to construct airbases in Azerbaijan. EU-3 would not be able to promise anything good enough without American signature on it. Thus Iran’s government has every incentive to negotiate with USA.
Purpose: Did Mr. Ahmadineghad want to open doors of negotiation with USA with this letter? Yes I believe he did. Many would argue that letter does not address nuclear concerns. I would argue that the first communication could not possibly address that. In the first move, Iranian government has taken the first step to approach USA without being accused of compromising national rights. It is unrealistic to expect a president to surrender in his first communication. As for the nuclear issues Mr. Rohani letter to Time was addressing the same issue offering a start point. Thus Iranian government, although in an unorthodox way, has been sincere in seeking talks to USA. Mr. Ahmadineghad’s purpose is clear. He has offered White House an opportunity for negotiations. Mr. Rohani’s letter also confirms Iran’s preliminary bid in this bargaining process.
Tactics: Why then a letter 18 pages in this style? Tactic is a strange thing. Although there are many conventional ones, but nobody stops using unconventional ones as well. President Ahmadineghad in approaching USA has a number of concerns:
- He cannot appear that he is compromising Iran, there is no political group in Iran that can do that.
- He cannot risk losing the political stability of system by angering its ultra-radical elements; the religious contents of letter could have been for his own protection.
- He cannot speak from a position of weakness; he has some good cards in his hands.
Thus a letter of this character seems to be his optimal solution for a multidimensional problem.
I believe it is not hard to see that Iranian government is ready to start negotiations with USA. Now the ball is in the White House yard. It is unfortunate that Mr. Ahmadineghad is not the perfect gentleman, and there is nothing perfect in this world. But to make it perfect in the Middle East; one needs talk to Iran, one must talk to Iran. There is a genuine opportunity for that, now, here.
[1] Just a few months later Iran bought its first squadrons of Mig-29 from Russian and since then Russian has become a major supplier of weapon, aircraft, heavy machinery and technical service to Iran.
It is obvious that this letter neither in content nor in style has been appealing to the most of Iran’s intellectual society and international community. Some felt embarrassment, some laughed at it and some took advantage of it to attack fundamentalist basis of Islamic Republic. Not many voices have joined those of characters such as Madeline Albright to ask White House to use this opportunity to start a new dialogue with Iran. It also is true that many in Islamic world consider his letter a triumph. Many of its points, although not shared by majority of Iranian population, are common thoughts in the Middle East. The average people on streets and in bazaars would repeat the same points to each other. Thus it is simplistic to consider this letter as the work of a simpleton. If one believes in incentive, purpose and proper tactics in diplomacy, then one ought to analyze Mr. Ahmadineghad’s incentive, purpose and tactical advantage in doing so.
Incentive: Do President Ahamdineghad and Iranian government have any incentive to seek negotiations with USA? The answer is “yes they do”. If security is the first concern of any national government, then Iranian government has to seek guarantees from USA not EU nor Russia nor China. USA has forces on both eastern and western fronts of Iran. Its naval presence in Persian Gulf and Sea of Amman is strong. There also are plans to construct airbases in Azerbaijan. EU-3 would not be able to promise anything good enough without American signature on it. Thus Iran’s government has every incentive to negotiate with USA.
Purpose: Did Mr. Ahmadineghad want to open doors of negotiation with USA with this letter? Yes I believe he did. Many would argue that letter does not address nuclear concerns. I would argue that the first communication could not possibly address that. In the first move, Iranian government has taken the first step to approach USA without being accused of compromising national rights. It is unrealistic to expect a president to surrender in his first communication. As for the nuclear issues Mr. Rohani letter to Time was addressing the same issue offering a start point. Thus Iranian government, although in an unorthodox way, has been sincere in seeking talks to USA. Mr. Ahmadineghad’s purpose is clear. He has offered White House an opportunity for negotiations. Mr. Rohani’s letter also confirms Iran’s preliminary bid in this bargaining process.
Tactics: Why then a letter 18 pages in this style? Tactic is a strange thing. Although there are many conventional ones, but nobody stops using unconventional ones as well. President Ahmadineghad in approaching USA has a number of concerns:
- He cannot appear that he is compromising Iran, there is no political group in Iran that can do that.
- He cannot risk losing the political stability of system by angering its ultra-radical elements; the religious contents of letter could have been for his own protection.
- He cannot speak from a position of weakness; he has some good cards in his hands.
Thus a letter of this character seems to be his optimal solution for a multidimensional problem.
I believe it is not hard to see that Iranian government is ready to start negotiations with USA. Now the ball is in the White House yard. It is unfortunate that Mr. Ahmadineghad is not the perfect gentleman, and there is nothing perfect in this world. But to make it perfect in the Middle East; one needs talk to Iran, one must talk to Iran. There is a genuine opportunity for that, now, here.
[1] Just a few months later Iran bought its first squadrons of Mig-29 from Russian and since then Russian has become a major supplier of weapon, aircraft, heavy machinery and technical service to Iran.
Tuesday, May 09, 2006
Women Can Go To Stadiums…. They cannot?
In midst of nuclear agenda, hardening the regulations regarding veil and collecting satellite dishes from residential areas, President Ahmadi Neghad announced that women must be welcome in Stadiums and sports events. He ordered one of his deputies to make necessary arrangements.
The reactions could not be more contradictory. On one side of political spectrum some reforms said with a sigh that he could do it because he has the support of the system. Others said that this was a good move. Many were happy because there was one sensible, visible change at last. People started to talk about it in buses and taxis[1]and women hold their breath for one brief second waiting to see the outcome.
Clergies, traditionalists and radicals alike, opposed such policies in most determine language. The most interesting part was the reaction of radical faction of Iran’s Parliament (Majlis). Some of its members openly told the residents of Qom that their Fatwas[2] are not law, and won’t be obliging until becoming so. Loftier heads had been lost expressing such thoughts in the past. More surprisingly the radical faction of the house is constituted by those who are there because of the support of the same clergies they defied for one brief moment.
At the end of the day, President caved in. There won’t be any women in stadium for a while. Another episode in the Presidency of Dr. Ahmadi Neghad is over. But why?
There is no observer of Iran’s politics who does not appreciate the role and influence of clergies of Qom and their radical figures. Mr. Ahmadi Neghad is supported by one of the most uncompromising figures Qom has to offer. However despite his teacher’s ideals and conventional wisdom he went for a bridge too far. There are several explanations each of them favored by some. However looking at Mr. Ahmadi Neghad’s actions from point of view of incentives might be more revealing than other approaches.
Mr. Ahmadi Neghad has come this far, not because he has been lucky or pragmatic, or modern. He has offered millions of frustrated low income families in Iran some hope. They might have seen him as an alternative to clergies rule, tired from Khatami’s indecisiveness and others’ economic gains, Ahmadi Neghad was an appealing figure indeed. He needs to keep the momentum of this support in order to stay in power and to remain controversial. He has not delivered any of his promises. There has not been any oil-revenue-surplus check for any one from south of Tehran. There has not been any free loan for recently married couples. Thus there must be another promise, another piece of hope to rally people to his standard.
Although it is not appreciated by the West, in Iran people’s opinions and support are counted on by different political factions. It is not the majority of people in this country, where population could be divided along so many lines; economically, culturally, intellectually, religiously, politically. There are groups, who form minorities but they can come together and form a decisive minority or a majority. Ahmadi Neghad has the incentives to act like he did; he needs these minorities to have some hope, even false ones. He needs to play women’s against hardliners and hardliners against women. And when he cannot deliver, this was “The others who did not let him to deliver”. In conspiracy oriented mindset of my esteemed compatriots that seems to be the final and unchallengeable excuse for lack of achievements.
[1] Taxis are the most active political discussion clubs in Iran, moderated normally by the cab drivers. They know everything.
[2] A religious decree which must be obeyed and followed by all true believers, in contemporary history an instrument for clergies to rally people to oppose un-Islamic policies of governments
The reactions could not be more contradictory. On one side of political spectrum some reforms said with a sigh that he could do it because he has the support of the system. Others said that this was a good move. Many were happy because there was one sensible, visible change at last. People started to talk about it in buses and taxis[1]and women hold their breath for one brief second waiting to see the outcome.
Clergies, traditionalists and radicals alike, opposed such policies in most determine language. The most interesting part was the reaction of radical faction of Iran’s Parliament (Majlis). Some of its members openly told the residents of Qom that their Fatwas[2] are not law, and won’t be obliging until becoming so. Loftier heads had been lost expressing such thoughts in the past. More surprisingly the radical faction of the house is constituted by those who are there because of the support of the same clergies they defied for one brief moment.
At the end of the day, President caved in. There won’t be any women in stadium for a while. Another episode in the Presidency of Dr. Ahmadi Neghad is over. But why?
There is no observer of Iran’s politics who does not appreciate the role and influence of clergies of Qom and their radical figures. Mr. Ahmadi Neghad is supported by one of the most uncompromising figures Qom has to offer. However despite his teacher’s ideals and conventional wisdom he went for a bridge too far. There are several explanations each of them favored by some. However looking at Mr. Ahmadi Neghad’s actions from point of view of incentives might be more revealing than other approaches.
Mr. Ahmadi Neghad has come this far, not because he has been lucky or pragmatic, or modern. He has offered millions of frustrated low income families in Iran some hope. They might have seen him as an alternative to clergies rule, tired from Khatami’s indecisiveness and others’ economic gains, Ahmadi Neghad was an appealing figure indeed. He needs to keep the momentum of this support in order to stay in power and to remain controversial. He has not delivered any of his promises. There has not been any oil-revenue-surplus check for any one from south of Tehran. There has not been any free loan for recently married couples. Thus there must be another promise, another piece of hope to rally people to his standard.
Although it is not appreciated by the West, in Iran people’s opinions and support are counted on by different political factions. It is not the majority of people in this country, where population could be divided along so many lines; economically, culturally, intellectually, religiously, politically. There are groups, who form minorities but they can come together and form a decisive minority or a majority. Ahmadi Neghad has the incentives to act like he did; he needs these minorities to have some hope, even false ones. He needs to play women’s against hardliners and hardliners against women. And when he cannot deliver, this was “The others who did not let him to deliver”. In conspiracy oriented mindset of my esteemed compatriots that seems to be the final and unchallengeable excuse for lack of achievements.
[1] Taxis are the most active political discussion clubs in Iran, moderated normally by the cab drivers. They know everything.
[2] A religious decree which must be obeyed and followed by all true believers, in contemporary history an instrument for clergies to rally people to oppose un-Islamic policies of governments
Monday, April 24, 2006
Read This
http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0424/p06s03-wome.html
Too busy now, but read this. A great piece. :) Iranians are one stubborn nation.
Too busy now, but read this. A great piece. :) Iranians are one stubborn nation.
Thursday, April 20, 2006
To my friend
I wrote this today:
(and I know it is really childish)
Every passing moment
brings me a color
some green like hope,
some red as passion,
some white, dotted by lines
from friends and foes
something goes through my heart
wonders my mind
and then I remember my vows
the good in me owes much to you
friends, classmates and so
some smiles, a few laughs
above all the will we have
to conquer, to reach the promised land
so my hair might be gone
my years might as well come
but my vows,
my vows all I have
(and I know it is really childish)
Every passing moment
brings me a color
some green like hope,
some red as passion,
some white, dotted by lines
from friends and foes
something goes through my heart
wonders my mind
and then I remember my vows
the good in me owes much to you
friends, classmates and so
some smiles, a few laughs
above all the will we have
to conquer, to reach the promised land
so my hair might be gone
my years might as well come
but my vows,
my vows all I have
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