Click on the title. After months of debate Majlis passed a law that Iranian women's children of foriegn nationals can apply for citizenship. I think this is a step forward.
Write more later, too busy at work.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
Monday, September 25, 2006
Proxy Talks: Iran - USA
David Ignatius has invited Iranian bloggers to comment on Iran and USA proxy talks, and the signaling games between two countries. The issue has been addressed by several think tanks and the links are on David’s webpage. The reports are most informative about how Iran’s issue has been perceived in Washington DC and at Capitol Hill. Reading them for an Iranian is a great experience of the image that political strategists have in their mind.
We are in the post Iraq occupation, post name-calling, post Lebanon 34 days war. Now the violence in Iraq is escalating. The situation in Afghanistan seems fragile and Pakistan is letting Taliban go and is not happy with Kabul. Lebanon war demonstrated the limits of air strikes. Iran enjoys a sort of high peak in regional influence, suffers from economic problems and needs to secure alternative energy resources to sell more oil to address them.
Reading the reports it seems that no one has any clear idea about how political decisions are made in Iran. Far from being a dictatorship, Iran is a great example of a crude democracy. There are several groups and circles that influence the political decision making process in Iran. These groups oppose or support policies and options they find harmful or profitable. They also use foreign policies issues to make their point in a domestic issue. Their dynamics demands close attention.
Second many forget that Iran and USA have mutual interests. Iran needs a calm neighborhood to flourish economically and to open its borders to the regional trade much needed for its economy. USA desires a safe Iraq and a stabilized Afghanistan and secure flow of oil from region. Iran also does not share anything ideologically with either Taliban or Al-Qaedeh. Both proved to be most dangerous for Iran’s homeland security in the past.
It is a fact that the decision making circles vary in power and influence in Iran, They do not necessarily share the same interests. But they all have one thing in common. Most of them remember Iran-Iraq war clearly and its lessons. Should Iran be cornered again by the whole world, she must be able to defend herself. Surely readers recall that during 8 years of that war Saddam had the blessings of the White House, the funds of Arab leaders and the largest network of arms suppliers, Iran had to do with domestic products, engineers’ ingenuity and black market.
USA must appreciate those concerns dealing with Iran and address them with sincere guarantees and mutual respect. Yelling like a cop just prevents the other side from stopping and talking. Nobody is making an arrest here.
Although many believe in the “let’s shoot and then shoot some more and then shoot even some more” it is certain a military strike will fail to stop Iran. Any such folly would encourage more radicalism in Iran and would not achieve the psychological effect that makes such an idea appealing to neo cons. Thus this is the situation: Iran and USA are locked in a situation that neither can eliminate the other player and both need each other.
It is regrettable that administration turned down Iran’s 2003 offer, made by then President Khatami, however a grand bargain is not off the table. Iran could use its influence in Iraq and contribute greatly to stability in Afghanistan. Its 75 million strong population and their entrepreneurship abilities could transform this country’s economy to the engine of economic growth for Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. And thus they would deny terrorism the fertile ground of poverty and frustration. It is the greatest lesson of development in Africa that foreign aids do not build a national economy, regional trade does.
In return USA could face the hard days in Iraq with more confidence, could be sure that even if Pakistan closes its eyes on revival of Taliban Iran would keep fighting them and guarantee the security of Afghanistan western provinces. It also can be sure that Iran would become a potential ally to harness China’s economy and to challenge Russian influence in Central Asia. Iran would prove instrumental in securing peace in Southern Lebanon and this would force Syria into accepting a compromise.
So yes I believe the proxy talks have a chance and I do think it is time that Secretary Rice to engage in direct talk with Iran. Anything less would imply the absence of sincerity and lack of resolution for a peaceful outcome. USA has already left too much to others. If this is needed to be done then somebody need to do it. Let’s not forget how well Nixon aced in his foreign policy with China. Iran could be a similar success if diplomacy is given a serious chance.
We are in the post Iraq occupation, post name-calling, post Lebanon 34 days war. Now the violence in Iraq is escalating. The situation in Afghanistan seems fragile and Pakistan is letting Taliban go and is not happy with Kabul. Lebanon war demonstrated the limits of air strikes. Iran enjoys a sort of high peak in regional influence, suffers from economic problems and needs to secure alternative energy resources to sell more oil to address them.
Reading the reports it seems that no one has any clear idea about how political decisions are made in Iran. Far from being a dictatorship, Iran is a great example of a crude democracy. There are several groups and circles that influence the political decision making process in Iran. These groups oppose or support policies and options they find harmful or profitable. They also use foreign policies issues to make their point in a domestic issue. Their dynamics demands close attention.
Second many forget that Iran and USA have mutual interests. Iran needs a calm neighborhood to flourish economically and to open its borders to the regional trade much needed for its economy. USA desires a safe Iraq and a stabilized Afghanistan and secure flow of oil from region. Iran also does not share anything ideologically with either Taliban or Al-Qaedeh. Both proved to be most dangerous for Iran’s homeland security in the past.
It is a fact that the decision making circles vary in power and influence in Iran, They do not necessarily share the same interests. But they all have one thing in common. Most of them remember Iran-Iraq war clearly and its lessons. Should Iran be cornered again by the whole world, she must be able to defend herself. Surely readers recall that during 8 years of that war Saddam had the blessings of the White House, the funds of Arab leaders and the largest network of arms suppliers, Iran had to do with domestic products, engineers’ ingenuity and black market.
USA must appreciate those concerns dealing with Iran and address them with sincere guarantees and mutual respect. Yelling like a cop just prevents the other side from stopping and talking. Nobody is making an arrest here.
Although many believe in the “let’s shoot and then shoot some more and then shoot even some more” it is certain a military strike will fail to stop Iran. Any such folly would encourage more radicalism in Iran and would not achieve the psychological effect that makes such an idea appealing to neo cons. Thus this is the situation: Iran and USA are locked in a situation that neither can eliminate the other player and both need each other.
It is regrettable that administration turned down Iran’s 2003 offer, made by then President Khatami, however a grand bargain is not off the table. Iran could use its influence in Iraq and contribute greatly to stability in Afghanistan. Its 75 million strong population and their entrepreneurship abilities could transform this country’s economy to the engine of economic growth for Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan. And thus they would deny terrorism the fertile ground of poverty and frustration. It is the greatest lesson of development in Africa that foreign aids do not build a national economy, regional trade does.
In return USA could face the hard days in Iraq with more confidence, could be sure that even if Pakistan closes its eyes on revival of Taliban Iran would keep fighting them and guarantee the security of Afghanistan western provinces. It also can be sure that Iran would become a potential ally to harness China’s economy and to challenge Russian influence in Central Asia. Iran would prove instrumental in securing peace in Southern Lebanon and this would force Syria into accepting a compromise.
So yes I believe the proxy talks have a chance and I do think it is time that Secretary Rice to engage in direct talk with Iran. Anything less would imply the absence of sincerity and lack of resolution for a peaceful outcome. USA has already left too much to others. If this is needed to be done then somebody need to do it. Let’s not forget how well Nixon aced in his foreign policy with China. Iran could be a similar success if diplomacy is given a serious chance.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
The First Day of the First Grade & The War
In the life of a child there are times she learns about sounds, he opens his eyes and discovers a new world to start a new era. None of these occasions is as important as the first day of the first grade for many. It is a day that many depart from home to discover classrooms, to meet friends, to learn to write to read and to become part of another society: school.
There are many sounds one learns on this day; screams, school’s principle voice, teacher’s voice, the sound of hundred students talking to each other, the sound of children playing soccer and ….
It was 26 years ago and I was one of those faces with wondering eyes looking at my new treasure; a light brown bag of some leather like substance, pens, pencils, crayons, notebooks and books. Across Iran that day thousands were rejoicing and wondering around theses items as they were jewels of ancient kings, thinking of the day they would become pupils. The sound we discovered that day was unlike any we had expected.
“Alert, Alert, This the Red Alert for Aerial Attack go to the Shelters, seek shelters.”
“Tavajoh, Tavajoh, Alamati ke hamknoon mishenavid Agir ghermez ya alamat khatar e hamelye havaayi ast, be panahgaah beravid.”
Saddam was invading Iran, dozens of cities were bombarded, and Iraqi army in three task forces crossed the international border. Iran was in a state of chaos, armed forces suspected by revolutionary leaders were disorganized, their officers under arrest, suspicion, or suspension.
But country rallied. Iran was under attack, there isn’t any more persuasive argument than that for Iranians. Air Force retaliated, Army set up defenses around cities and re-organized its divisions, and volunteers filled the ranks of Basij & IRGC. They charged Iraqi positions in frontal attacks unheard of since World War I. For the first time in 150 years Iranians pushed the aggressor out of their territory. They shed blood, tears and sweat to do so.
Saddam announced that it was going to be a quick victory. War lasted for 8 years. It transformed Iranian society and left scores of villages and towns in ruins. Thousands perished defending Iran; their number varies from 300’000 to 1’000’000. Thousands more wounded and maimed. World silently watched Iraq used chemical weapons against Iranian 18-years-old soldiers. Hundreds died, hundreds more were left to suffer for years to come. Many still suffer from their wounds.
War also shaped Iran’s psychic and emphasized the fact that no one in the world cares about the fate of an Iranian individual; civilian or military. No one opposed Saddam’s aggression; no Arab leader condemned his use of chemical weapons. In fact many helped him. That fall a smiling King Hussein of Jordan fired a canon toward Iran. Egyptian pilots flied for Iraqi Air Force.
There are many sounds one learns on this day; screams, school’s principle voice, teacher’s voice, the sound of hundred students talking to each other, the sound of children playing soccer and ….
It was 26 years ago and I was one of those faces with wondering eyes looking at my new treasure; a light brown bag of some leather like substance, pens, pencils, crayons, notebooks and books. Across Iran that day thousands were rejoicing and wondering around theses items as they were jewels of ancient kings, thinking of the day they would become pupils. The sound we discovered that day was unlike any we had expected.
“Alert, Alert, This the Red Alert for Aerial Attack go to the Shelters, seek shelters.”
“Tavajoh, Tavajoh, Alamati ke hamknoon mishenavid Agir ghermez ya alamat khatar e hamelye havaayi ast, be panahgaah beravid.”
Saddam was invading Iran, dozens of cities were bombarded, and Iraqi army in three task forces crossed the international border. Iran was in a state of chaos, armed forces suspected by revolutionary leaders were disorganized, their officers under arrest, suspicion, or suspension.
But country rallied. Iran was under attack, there isn’t any more persuasive argument than that for Iranians. Air Force retaliated, Army set up defenses around cities and re-organized its divisions, and volunteers filled the ranks of Basij & IRGC. They charged Iraqi positions in frontal attacks unheard of since World War I. For the first time in 150 years Iranians pushed the aggressor out of their territory. They shed blood, tears and sweat to do so.
Saddam announced that it was going to be a quick victory. War lasted for 8 years. It transformed Iranian society and left scores of villages and towns in ruins. Thousands perished defending Iran; their number varies from 300’000 to 1’000’000. Thousands more wounded and maimed. World silently watched Iraq used chemical weapons against Iranian 18-years-old soldiers. Hundreds died, hundreds more were left to suffer for years to come. Many still suffer from their wounds.
War also shaped Iran’s psychic and emphasized the fact that no one in the world cares about the fate of an Iranian individual; civilian or military. No one opposed Saddam’s aggression; no Arab leader condemned his use of chemical weapons. In fact many helped him. That fall a smiling King Hussein of Jordan fired a canon toward Iran. Egyptian pilots flied for Iraqi Air Force.
Iranians found themselves to be alone and isolated, in a way that a tyrant was actually allowed to commit any crimes against them without fear of international punishment or opposition. They still remember that lesson.
The war also changed the Middle East forever; Saddam used his military machine against Kuwait, a former ally, and created such a threat that was to be faced by the largest international coalition since the Second World War. Today Iraq is in danger of civil war as a consequence of that act of aggression in 1980. For Iraqis war never ended since that day.
We first graders of 1980 did not know that day, but the world outside our homes changed forever and so did our homes and families. Some lost a father or a brother. 8 years later war was all we knew, its noises too familiar. Peace had became a forgotten dream. Today I hope and pray no other first grader anywhere in the world has ever to discover the sound of this beast, the first day he or she explores the world outside. Today I pray for the souls of those who died and for the sufferings of those who survived. Today let's remember them.
The war also changed the Middle East forever; Saddam used his military machine against Kuwait, a former ally, and created such a threat that was to be faced by the largest international coalition since the Second World War. Today Iraq is in danger of civil war as a consequence of that act of aggression in 1980. For Iraqis war never ended since that day.
We first graders of 1980 did not know that day, but the world outside our homes changed forever and so did our homes and families. Some lost a father or a brother. 8 years later war was all we knew, its noises too familiar. Peace had became a forgotten dream. Today I hope and pray no other first grader anywhere in the world has ever to discover the sound of this beast, the first day he or she explores the world outside. Today I pray for the souls of those who died and for the sufferings of those who survived. Today let's remember them.
BestBuy and New Competition
According to NY Times Flat-Panel TV sales have helped the company during its second quarter. The robust demand for Flat-Panel TV is considered to be “the engine of growth” for this company. Today Wall Street Journal has reported the prospects of Flat-Panel TV profitability are not as bright as before anymore, since Home Depot has started to offer the item in its stores.
From an industrial organization point of view, this is very interesting. The concept of entering market is usually taught as a new business entering into market, so the number of firms increases. However entering market apparently is a wider concept and it includes offering new services and products by existing firms as well. Still one can argue the number of suppliers of that product increases without a change in total number of firms present in the market.
Regarding Flat-Panel TV the number of stores increases, however there is no new business in the market. What would happen to follow up technical services and warranty? Would the existing companies keep offering them? Or there would be new entry into the market?
The increasing competition among Flat-Panel TV suppliers promise a declining price, however declining price could mean decline in the marginal gains of warranty services so I wonder if a Flat-Panel TV still comes with a great technical support.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
Iranian Surprise
It is interesting to compare pre-revolution days to post-revolution ones. Many westerns consider pre-revolution a time of freedom for women. However it must be noticed that their participation in Iranian universities never matched that of men in those days. It is ironic to notice that how much the number of Iranian female students and their presence in academic circles have increased during last years.
The causes of this drastic difference are many and I won't be surprised if one discovers after revolution many traditional families feel that they can send their daughters to universities without being worried about influence of a strange culture.
The lesson is that at the end of the day, there are the people who initiate lasting and real changes. The surface of things says little about the reality of events.
A seemingly modern society had defined very traditional roles for women, which even its small elite seemed to follow and to believe in. A seemingly traditional society has defined and accepted very progressive roles for women in several places such as universities and work places. That is the surprise of Iran and Islamic Republic of Iran.
The causes of this drastic difference are many and I won't be surprised if one discovers after revolution many traditional families feel that they can send their daughters to universities without being worried about influence of a strange culture.
The lesson is that at the end of the day, there are the people who initiate lasting and real changes. The surface of things says little about the reality of events.
A seemingly modern society had defined very traditional roles for women, which even its small elite seemed to follow and to believe in. A seemingly traditional society has defined and accepted very progressive roles for women in several places such as universities and work places. That is the surprise of Iran and Islamic Republic of Iran.
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